Publications

Influenza A viruses (IAV) have caused more documented global pandemics in human history than any other pathogen1,2. High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses belonging to the H5N1 subtype are a leading pandemic risk. Two decades after H5N1 "bird flu" became established in poultry in Southeast Asia, its descendants have resurged3, setting off an H5N1 panzootic in wild birds that is fueled by (a) rapid intercontinental spread, reaching South America and Antarctica for the first time4,5; (b) fast evolution via genomic reassortment6; and (c) frequent spillover into terrestrial7,8 and marine mammals9. The virus has sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission in multiple settings, including European fur farms10,11, South American marine mammals12-15, and US dairy cattle16-19, raising questions about whether humans are next. Historically, swine are considered optimal intermediary hosts that help avian influenza viruses (AIV) adapt to mammals before jumping to humans20. However, the altered ecology of H5N1 has opened the door to new evolutionary pathways. Could dairy cattle, farmed mink, or South American sea lions serve as new mammalian gateways to humans? Here we explore the molecular and ecological factors driving H5N1's sudden expansion in host range and assess the likelihood of different zoonotic pathways leading to an H5N1 pandemic.

Zoonotic spillovers of viruses have occurred through the animal trade worldwide. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was traced epidemiologically to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. Here, we analyze environmental qPCR and sequencing data collected in the Huanan market in early 2020. We demonstrate that market-linked severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic diversity is consistent with market emergence and find increased SARS-CoV-2 positivity near and within a wildlife stall. We identify wildlife DNA in all SARS-CoV-2-positive samples from this stall, including species such as civets, bamboo rats, and raccoon dogs, previously identified as possible intermediate hosts. We also detect animal viruses that infect raccoon dogs, civets, and bamboo rats. Combining metagenomic and phylogenetic approaches, we recover genotypes of market animals and compare them with those from farms and other markets. This analysis provides the genetic basis for a shortlist of potential intermediate hosts of SARS-CoV-2 to prioritize for serological and viral sampling.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes a contagious disease (FMD) in cloven-hoofed animals. For FMD-endemic countries, vaccination is critical for controlling disease but is rarely monitored, despite substantial funds spent on vaccine purchases. We evaluated antibody responses in cattle to two commercial vaccines each containing antigens of four FMDV serotypes. Sampling was done over 360 days, with serology for each serotype performed using commercially available solid phase competition ELISAs (SPCE) and with virus neutralization tests (VNT) employing regionally relevant test viruses. A primary course of each vaccine was administered to 37 calves, some of which received a second dose after 28 days. Using new production batches of vaccines, all calves received a booster vaccination 180 days post vaccination, while 10 additional naïve calves were also vaccinated using the new batches and followed up for ∼180 days. Simple and general linear models were used to compare antibody responses which varied substantially according to vaccine, dose regime, serotype, and test, but were mostly insufficient to ensure a high likelihood of adequate or sustained probable protection. One of the vaccines administered as a two-dose primary course of vaccination was superior to other options, but even then, data trajectories from VNT responses suggested probable protection of 75 % of calves for 6 months for only one virus serotype. Calves administered with the other vaccine and those given a single primary dose developed low levels of antibodies, offering predicted likely protection lasting less than two months. Individual SPCE results were weakly correlated (r2 = 0.48) to neutralization and associated likelihoods of protection but SPCE and VNT agreed on which vaccine and dose regime performed best. Our findings highlight gaps in immunogenicity of FMD vaccines used in East Africa and reinforce the importance of independent quality control studies to evaluate and improve commercial FMD vaccines and vaccination regimes.

Obtaining a complete good-quality sequence and annotation for the long double-stranded DNA genome of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) from next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology has proven difficult, despite the increasing availability of reference genome sequences and the increasing affordability of NGS. A gap analysis conducted by the global African swine fever research alliance (GARA) partners identified that a standardized, automatic pipeline for NGS analysis was urgently needed, particularly for new outbreak strains. Whilst there are several diagnostic and research labs worldwide that collect isolates of the ASFV from outbreaks, many do not have the capability to analyze, annotate, and format NGS data from outbreaks for submission to NCBI, and some publicly available ASFV genomes have missing or incorrect annotations. We developed an automated, standardized pipeline for the analysis of NGS reads that directly provides users with assemblies and annotations formatted for their submission to NCBI. This pipeline is freely available on GitHub and has been tested through the GARA partners by examining two previously sequenced ASFV genomes; this study also aimed to assess the accuracy and limitations of two strategies present within the pipeline: reference-based (Illumina reads) and de novo assembly (Illumina and Nanopore reads) strategies.